The Democrats’ Uphill Climb to Hold Senate Gets Steeper

For Democrats the quest to control the Senate is a tough uphill battle. They need to flip several seats, while Republicans are in the clear looking to secure West Virginia, among other states.
To take full control of the Senate, Republicans must flip only two seats, with Ohio and Montana as their primary targets. With Senator Joe Manchin retiring, West Virginia is expected to strengthen the GOP’s position, making a majority more likely.
“With that West Virginia seat, the starting line for the battle for the Senate is 50-50. Even if Democrats hold every other seat, if Republicans take the White House, that means they also take the Senate,” said Susan Davis, political correspondent on The NPR Politics Podcast.
Davis explained if Democrats win the White House on November 5, the same outcome will occur.
Davis said former president Donald Trump is leading Montana by 15 points today and no one expects Vice President Kamala Harris to contest in the state because it predominantly leans Republican.
Regarding the senate seat, incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is trailing Republican Tim Sheehy by six to eight points.
Tester has been serving Montana since 2007 and is known for his work on issues such as veterans’ affairs and rural health care. Sheehy is a businessman and former Navy SEAL who has not held public office before.
Ximena Bustillo, political reporter for The NPR Politics Podcast, recently visited Ohio, another key state in the Senate race.
She said during a recent podcast episode Democrats are on defense in several key races, including Ohio, where incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is facing a challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno.
Brown has historically performed well despite national trends, but recent changes in Ohio’s political landscape could impact his chances.
“He’s [Brown] a really wonky dude,” Bustillo said. “He likes to talk about trade policy, economics and labor, but he also electorally has a very unique history of keeping his wins and getting votes for him as a Democrat in parts of the state where other Democrats weren’t.”
Brown emphasized his independent brand, often distancing himself from the broader Democratic Party’s presidential ticket.
Republican candidate Moreno, who is from Colombia, focuses his campaign on immigration and drug trafficking. He is leveraging his Trump endorsement to appeal to supporters and conservative voters.
Davis said incumbents generally have an advantage, which helps Democrats like Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin maintain strong positions. However, Republican candidates in some races, like Kari Lake in Arizona, could weaken their chances by being controversial.
“Incumbents are still really hard to beat and Senate incumbents – assuming they don’t have some crazy scandal behind them – are really, really hard to beat,” she said.
Trump’s endorsement may influence individual races, particularly in Ohio, where Moreno’s alignment with Trump could either boost his campaign or become a liability.
Follow Newsweek’s election live blog for updates.
Do you have a story Newsweek should be covering? Do you have any questions about this story? Contact [email protected]